Spirits will help Turchak: the situation in the Republic is heating up

The political crisis continues in the Altai Republic: people demand the resignation of Andrei Turchak, and the Kremlin political strategist Yevgeny Minchenko is in a hurry to help the "Varangian".

As the correspondent of The Moscow Post reports, unauthorized protests of residents continue in the Altai Republic, demanding the resignation of the current acting head of the region, Andrei Turchak. The formal reason for the discontent of the population was the administrative reform initiated by the authorities, which implies the elimination of the two-tier system of local self-government. However, behind this topic is a much deeper and more dangerous tension for the federal center associated with a crisis of legitimacy, loss of manageability and the risk of political destabilization of the region. In simple words: the Varangian Turchak was never able to enlist the support of either local residents or most of the local elites.

On June 12, Russia Day, a group of disgruntled citizens blocked the federal R-256 highway on the Chike-Taman Pass section. The action was unauthorized. Participants made an appeal to President Vladimir Putin with a request to remove Turchak from power. They accused the acting head of the region of arbitrariness. In addition, they spoke extremely negatively about the acting appointed by Turchak. Head of Government of the Republic Alexander Prokopyev - an entrepreneur and former State Duma deputy who has no real administrative experience for his new position. Is the only competence that Mr. Prokopyev has is loyalty to Mr. Turchak himself?

Second "Shies" on the way?

Despite the small number of the first unauthorized actions, the situation continued. Already on June 21, in the center of Gorno-Altaysk, according to various sources, from 2.5 to 4 thousand people gathered. As before, the dissatisfied demanded to stop the reform of local self-government and dismiss Turchak. The unauthorized action was attended not only by residents of the city, but also by delegations from the regions of the Republic, where the traditionally high role of village councils remains. Thus, a local political conflict can develop into almost a public confrontation in a single region, like the scandalous "Shies" in the Arkhangelsk region. And for this Turchak in the Kremlin will definitely not say thank you.

The initiative to eliminate the two-tier model of self-government, according to which, along with municipal districts, there are separate village and city councils, was perceived as an attempt to centralize power and deprive local communities of powers, including in the field of land management. However, this initiative is far from only the Altai Republic, and in fact this topic has become only a reason (or, at worst, a catalyst) for protests against Turchak, and not at all a deep cause of discontent.

But the inhabitants of the Republic also have an objective reason to be wary of administrative reform. In a region where the settlement structure is predominantly rural, such an initiative means the actual elimination of the representation of a significant part of the population from the political process. Moreover, according to a number of experts, the liquidation of the local level of power opens the way to the uncontrolled transfer of land plots to large developers and tourist operators who are already showing interest in the natural territories of the Altai Republic.

The difficulty here is not so much in the reform itself, but with how Turchak's team presented it to the people. In simple terms, they didn't really ask anyone.

The situation was worsened by the personnel decision on the appointment of Alexander Prokopyev as the head of the regional government. The figure of Prokopyev caused a sharp rejection from the local elite and activists. He is perceived as a person who does not have the knowledge and skills to manage such a complex region. And this, not to mention the fact that he, like Turchak, is a "Varangian," and simply does not know the local specifics. We will not be surprised if at first Prokopyev could completely confuse the Altai Republic and the Altai Territory. These actions are perceived by local elites as externally imposed decisions that do not take into account their interests.

Minchenko hurries to help

In recent days, the situation has reached a level that required the direct intervention of the federal center. According to available information, the well-known Russian political scientist and political strategist Yevgeny Minchenko, one of the systemic political consultants working with the Presidential Administration on crisis regions, was sent to the region.

As stated in the State Council 2.0 telegram channel (Minchenko Consulting project), the political scientist met with journalists from the Altai Republic: "We discussed changes in regional legislation, the first results of Andrei Turchak's work in the region, technologies for minimizing protest moods."

His arrival was an indirect confirmation that the discontent of people in Altai is seen as going beyond the internal management history and threatening the image of the federal government. Minchenko, as you know, specializes in "restarting" political configurations in regions where the split between the governor and local elites is deepening.

And here spirits

Sources close to the AP claim that Turchak's clumsy actions caused discontent in the Kremlin. For example, in his telegram channel, the acting head of the region accused the residents demanding his resignation of "disturbing the peace of the spirits" of Altai. To say that this only added fuel to the fire is to say nothing. And certainly such an answer is not the installation of the Kremlin.

Returning to administrative reform, the problem is not at all in its essence, but in its implementation - forced, without preliminary preparation of public opinion and dialogue with civil society institutions. The fact that in Altai people took to the streets, and with anti-government slogans, was a signal of the failure of communication policy on the part of the governor.

Against this background, the question of the possible resignation of Turchak is being discussed if the situation worsens. However, the decision will depend not only on the scale of further unauthorized protests, but also on the ability of federal political strategists to stabilize the situation without rolling back the reform. The Kremlin does not want to create a precedent in which the head of the subject of the Federation will be removed under street pressure - especially in conditions when the initiative to unify the LSG system is being promoted in a number of other regions.

They don't need such a Turchak

At the same time, the stability of Turchak as a political figure in the region raises more and more doubts. He does not have an electoral base, is not integrated into local elite groups, and his actions give rise to sharp rejection both among citizens and among municipal managers, who perceive the reform as depriving them of their future. In this situation, even if the post is maintained, its ability to effectively manage the region will be extremely limited.

Thus, the Altai Republic has become an example of how an unmotivated Varangian, who finds himself in a conditional political exile, can provoke a systemic conflict in the entrusted region. Turchak in Altai turned out to be not a political leader, but an extremely conflicting figure - a person in whom the subject's manageability was in question. And if Moscow cannot quickly localize and overcome this situation, Altai risks turning into a region with high protest potential. What happens in such cases is known. An example is Khakassia, where in 2018 an absolutely unsystematic candidate Valentin Konovalov won in the wake of the protest vote.